Michael Roberts' Blog -San Jose Homes, Real Estate and Houses for Sale

Following  very active home sales for nearly 60 days creates a problem for everyone!   What is a market price now?   Is it a Seller’s market or a Buyer’s market.    Well,  it sure is a market of change in all areas of Santa Clara County according to market statistics. Consider these 10 facts…

1. A spike in local sales activity. A spike refers to a significant rise in the number of home sales (or values) in a local market area, which generally is measured month to month. A spike does not necessarily mean continued growth, i.e. it could be a one month phenomenon.

2. Higher asking and selling prices vs. appraisal value opinions for residential properties. Appraisers study the markets; they do not make the markets. When the data shows higher sale prices in comparable properties market value opinions will increase proportionally. Appraisers seek evidence of value but do not create the value. In time periods with low activity, evidence of any kind is difficult to find.

3. More activity at open houses. Open houses with five to eight attendees is considered average,  so a dozen or more people attending, like we are seeing in Los Gatos and Cupertino,  open houses means buyer interest is picking up. Also, the mood of the attendees is important. Are they optimist and upbeat? Buyers interest alone does not always translate to effective purchasing power. If the number of buyers in the market increases but they do not have requisite down payments, the sales may still not occur.

4. Shorter marketing times. In some markets like  Downtown San Jose, houses have been up for sale for more than a year. In most balanced residential markets, properties that are priced competitively will typically sell in less than six months. If the Days On Market (DOM) is shortening, many practitioners will read an improvement in the market.

5. Reduced number of foreclosures and short sales. A reduction in these transactions commonly signals a more balanced market. This has become very evident in the  Cambrian area.  If lenders are reluctant to foreclose because of an oversupply of inventory, they may choose to wait to repossess the properties, which could allow a spike in the number of foreclosures later despite a better market condition.

6. Stabilized employment. Stable or increasing employment rates provide the necessary confidence for potential buyers to invest in a home. Since most buyers rely on borrowed funds to make real estate purchases and borrowing money usually requires a source of repayment and that usually means jobs, an increase in this basic need, will enable more real estate sales.

7. Fewer buyer incentives and seller concessions. Seller-paid incentives or concessions are a sign of seller motivation. If there are fewer builders offering “free” upgrades and fewer sellers sweetening the deal with big screen TVs, it may be a sign of lessening supply and therefore a better market.  The First Time Buyer Tax Credit is helping here a bunch!

8. New construction starts. Most builders are quite attune to their markets and will not build new homes without a corresponding contract for sale or a perceived increase in demand. An increase in the number of building permits usually indicates higher demand and higher prices. If residential properties are selling for 25% less than they cost to build, only a few new homes will be built. It would be prudent to buy an existing home rather than build a new one for a much higher price.

9. “Move-up” buyers entering the market. More buyers willing to move to a larger or superior quality home indicates a healthy market. The lack of buyers at the lower end of the price range will have a chain reaction throughout the market. If a buyer for a high priced home has a lower priced home to sell first, the sale of the higher priced home may have to occur before the higher priced one can sell.

10. Apartments advertising renter specials - fewer renters in the market may indicate more people are moving into owner occupied homes or it could indicate a reduction in population. Lower population will cause an oversupply of housing which will oftentimes permeate throughout several markets.

Bringing the Dream of Homeownership Within Reach

I have waited to post this info since, the last time the program was announced it was removed and now, finally, we can rely on it’s use.   I have added a link below, from the housing dept., to clarify the details for you and everyone in our Santa Clara County community of interested buyers and investors.

Congress has passed the legislation that grants a tax credit of up to $8,000 to first-time home buyers.

Here is more information about how the 2009 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit can help prospective home buyers become part of the American dream.

Who Qualifies?

First-time home buyers who purchase homes between January 1, 2009 and December 1, 2009.

To qualify as a “first-time home buyer” the purchaser or his/her spouse may not have owned a residence during the three years prior to the purchase.

Which Properties Are Eligible?

The 2009 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit may be applied to primary residences, including: single-family homes, condos, townhomes, and co-ops.

How Much Will the Credit Be?

The maximum allowable credit for home buyers is $8,000. Each home buyer’s tax credit is determined by two factors:

The price of the home-the credit is equal to 10% of the purchase price of the home, up to $8,000.    In our San Jose market this is a no brainer…the whole $8000 credit can be used if you meet the income restrictions.

The buyer’s income-single buyers with incomes up to $75,000 and married couples with incomes up to $150,000-may receive the maximum tax credit.

How to use the credit

If the Buyer(s)’ Income Exceeds These Limits, Can He/She Still Get a Credit?

Yes, some buyers may still be eligible for the credit.

The credit decreases for buyers who earn between $75,000 and $95,000 for single buyers and between $150,000 and $170,000 for home buyers filing jointly. The amount of the tax credit decreases as his/her income approaches the maximum limit. Home buyers earning more than the maximum qualifying income-over $95,000 for singles and over $170,000 for couples are not eligible for the credit.

Will the Tax Credit Need to Be Repaid?

No. The buyer does not need to repay the tax credit, if he/she occupies the home for three years or more. However, if the property is sold during the three-year period, the credit will be recouped on the sale.

RealtyTrac®, one of the leading online marketplaces for foreclosure properties, released its May 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report^TM, which shows foreclosure filings-default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions-were reported on 321,480 U.S. properties during the month, a decrease of 6% from the previous month but an increase of nearly 18% from April 2008. The report also shows that one in every 398 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in May.

“May foreclosure activity was the third highest month on record, and marked the third straight month where the total number of properties with foreclosure filings exceeded 300,000 – a first in the history of our report,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “While defaults and scheduled foreclosure auctions were both down from the previous month, bank repossessions, or REOs, were up 2% thanks largely to substantial increases in several states, including Michigan, Arizona, Washington, Nevada, Oregon and New York. We expect REO activity to spike in the coming months as foreclosure delays and moratoria implemented by various state laws come to an end.”

Nevada, California, Florida post top state foreclosure rates

Nevada continued to document the nation’s highest foreclosure rate, with one in every 64 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month – more than six times the national average.

With one in every 144 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month, California posted the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate despite a 4% decrease in foreclosure activity from the previous month.

Florida posted the third highest state foreclosure rate in May, with one in every 148 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month

Arizona posted the fourth highest state foreclosure rate in May, with one in every 158 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing, and Utah posted the fifth highest state foreclosure rate, with one in every 316 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing.

Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the nation’s 10 highest were Michigan, Georgia, Colorado, Idaho and Ohio.

Top 10 states account for nearly 77% of total U.S. foreclosure activity.

California reported 92,249 properties with foreclosure filings in May, the highest total of any state and up nearly 23% from May 2008. Bank repossessions in California were down 1% from the previous month and defaults were down 18%, but scheduled auctions were up 18%.

Default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions in Florida were all down from the previous month, but the state still posted the nation’s second highest number of properties with foreclosure filings: 58,931, up 50% from May 2008.

Nevada documented 17,157 properties with foreclosure filings in May, the third highest total of any state and up nearly 83% from May 2008. A 23% increase in bank repossessions helped push Nevada foreclosure activity up 5% from the previous month.

Other states with totals among the 10 highest in the country were Arizona (16,865), Michigan (13,891), Ohio (11,360), Illinois (10,942), Georgia (10,516), Texas (9,813) and Virginia (5,385). The top 10 states accounted for nearly 77% of total properties with foreclosure filings nationwide.

California, Florida, Nevada dominate top 10 metro foreclosure rates
Foreclosure filings were reported on 14,681 Las Vegas properties in May, one in every 54 housing units – more than seven times the national average and the highest foreclosure rate among metro areas with a population of at least 200,000. The city’s foreclosure activity increased 4% from the previous month and 78% from May 2008.

California and Florida accounted for the remainder of top 10 metro foreclosure rates.

California cities accounted for six of the top 10 spots: Stockton at No. 2 (one in 68 housing units), Modesto at No. 3 (one in 71), Riverside-San Bernardino at No. 4 (one in 75), Merced at No. 5 (one in 78), Bakersfield at No. 7 (one in 94), and Vallejo-Fairfield at No. 9 (one in 101).

Florida cities accounted for three of the top 10 spots: Cape Coral-Fort Myers at No. 6 (one in 82 housing units), Orlando-Kissimmee at No. 8 (one in 101), and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach at No. 10 (one in 105).