Michael Roberts' Blog -San Jose Homes, Real Estate and Houses for Sale

It’s a no brainer that housing and jobs are interrelated.  Fix housing and jobs will follow in service sectors and and the manufacturing of products we need at home.

I believe only one thing is going to get our  economy moving again..Housing. We got here because Real Estate based derivatives failed to produce gains. Right?  No money, no growth and no jobs.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September 2009, rose 6.1% to 110.1 from a reading of 103.8 in August, and is 21.2% higher than September 2008 when it stood at 90.9. The gain from a year ago is the largest annual increase on record, and the index is at the highest level since December 2006 when it was 112.8.

We got here because Real Estate based derivatives failed to produce gains.   Well, then why doesn’t the government focus more on housing strategies? Obviously, it has been very effective!

This quote proves my point…

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the momentum is understandable. “What we’re witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month,” he said. “Home values will stabilize sooner rather than over-correcting. That, in turn, will mean wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families and lay the foundation for a durable economic recovery.”

What if  the Obama administration created another tax benefit for ALL buyers?  Better yet,  produce better guidelines that all banks must use to implement procedures that fast track short sales.  Oh, Oh, Oh I know!   LOAN MODS!!!!!  What happened to all the promises there?    Fix Housing-Fix America!

Even renters could see a benefit.   Consider an apartment owner who would not feel the need to raise rents to their max if he could only get a small loan mod.   Do you think you would be a ‘consumer’ again if you could get a loan mod?   I bet your answer is ” YEP”!  That new TV or new Dining Room table would become affordable for you and that only creates more jobs! Right?

So many sectors of the economy are dependent on housing that it is a big ‘no brainer’  that housing should be the focus.

Related articles by Zemanta

• $8,000 homebuyers tax credit extended (money.cnn.com)
• Home sales contracts rise for 8th straight month (money.cnn.com)

Following  very active home sales for nearly 60 days creates a problem for everyone!   What is a market price now?   Is it a Seller’s market or a Buyer’s market.    Well,  it sure is a market of change in all areas of Santa Clara County according to market statistics. Consider these 10 facts…

1. A spike in local sales activity. A spike refers to a significant rise in the number of home sales (or values) in a local market area, which generally is measured month to month. A spike does not necessarily mean continued growth, i.e. it could be a one month phenomenon.

2. Higher asking and selling prices vs. appraisal value opinions for residential properties. Appraisers study the markets; they do not make the markets. When the data shows higher sale prices in comparable properties market value opinions will increase proportionally. Appraisers seek evidence of value but do not create the value. In time periods with low activity, evidence of any kind is difficult to find.

3. More activity at open houses. Open houses with five to eight attendees is considered average,  so a dozen or more people attending, like we are seeing in Los Gatos and Cupertino,  open houses means buyer interest is picking up. Also, the mood of the attendees is important. Are they optimist and upbeat? Buyers interest alone does not always translate to effective purchasing power. If the number of buyers in the market increases but they do not have requisite down payments, the sales may still not occur.

4. Shorter marketing times. In some markets like  Downtown San Jose, houses have been up for sale for more than a year. In most balanced residential markets, properties that are priced competitively will typically sell in less than six months. If the Days On Market (DOM) is shortening, many practitioners will read an improvement in the market.

5. Reduced number of foreclosures and short sales. A reduction in these transactions commonly signals a more balanced market. This has become very evident in the  Cambrian area.  If lenders are reluctant to foreclose because of an oversupply of inventory, they may choose to wait to repossess the properties, which could allow a spike in the number of foreclosures later despite a better market condition.

6. Stabilized employment. Stable or increasing employment rates provide the necessary confidence for potential buyers to invest in a home. Since most buyers rely on borrowed funds to make real estate purchases and borrowing money usually requires a source of repayment and that usually means jobs, an increase in this basic need, will enable more real estate sales.

7. Fewer buyer incentives and seller concessions. Seller-paid incentives or concessions are a sign of seller motivation. If there are fewer builders offering “free” upgrades and fewer sellers sweetening the deal with big screen TVs, it may be a sign of lessening supply and therefore a better market.  The First Time Buyer Tax Credit is helping here a bunch!

8. New construction starts. Most builders are quite attune to their markets and will not build new homes without a corresponding contract for sale or a perceived increase in demand. An increase in the number of building permits usually indicates higher demand and higher prices. If residential properties are selling for 25% less than they cost to build, only a few new homes will be built. It would be prudent to buy an existing home rather than build a new one for a much higher price.

9. “Move-up” buyers entering the market. More buyers willing to move to a larger or superior quality home indicates a healthy market. The lack of buyers at the lower end of the price range will have a chain reaction throughout the market. If a buyer for a high priced home has a lower priced home to sell first, the sale of the higher priced home may have to occur before the higher priced one can sell.

10. Apartments advertising renter specials - fewer renters in the market may indicate more people are moving into owner occupied homes or it could indicate a reduction in population. Lower population will cause an oversupply of housing which will oftentimes permeate throughout several markets.

RealtyTrac®, one of the leading online marketplaces for foreclosure properties, released its May 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report^TM, which shows foreclosure filings-default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions-were reported on 321,480 U.S. properties during the month, a decrease of 6% from the previous month but an increase of nearly 18% from April 2008. The report also shows that one in every 398 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in May.

“May foreclosure activity was the third highest month on record, and marked the third straight month where the total number of properties with foreclosure filings exceeded 300,000 – a first in the history of our report,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “While defaults and scheduled foreclosure auctions were both down from the previous month, bank repossessions, or REOs, were up 2% thanks largely to substantial increases in several states, including Michigan, Arizona, Washington, Nevada, Oregon and New York. We expect REO activity to spike in the coming months as foreclosure delays and moratoria implemented by various state laws come to an end.”

Nevada, California, Florida post top state foreclosure rates

Nevada continued to document the nation’s highest foreclosure rate, with one in every 64 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month – more than six times the national average.

With one in every 144 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month, California posted the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate despite a 4% decrease in foreclosure activity from the previous month.

Florida posted the third highest state foreclosure rate in May, with one in every 148 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month

Arizona posted the fourth highest state foreclosure rate in May, with one in every 158 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing, and Utah posted the fifth highest state foreclosure rate, with one in every 316 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing.

Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the nation’s 10 highest were Michigan, Georgia, Colorado, Idaho and Ohio.

Top 10 states account for nearly 77% of total U.S. foreclosure activity.

California reported 92,249 properties with foreclosure filings in May, the highest total of any state and up nearly 23% from May 2008. Bank repossessions in California were down 1% from the previous month and defaults were down 18%, but scheduled auctions were up 18%.

Default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions in Florida were all down from the previous month, but the state still posted the nation’s second highest number of properties with foreclosure filings: 58,931, up 50% from May 2008.

Nevada documented 17,157 properties with foreclosure filings in May, the third highest total of any state and up nearly 83% from May 2008. A 23% increase in bank repossessions helped push Nevada foreclosure activity up 5% from the previous month.

Other states with totals among the 10 highest in the country were Arizona (16,865), Michigan (13,891), Ohio (11,360), Illinois (10,942), Georgia (10,516), Texas (9,813) and Virginia (5,385). The top 10 states accounted for nearly 77% of total properties with foreclosure filings nationwide.

California, Florida, Nevada dominate top 10 metro foreclosure rates
Foreclosure filings were reported on 14,681 Las Vegas properties in May, one in every 54 housing units – more than seven times the national average and the highest foreclosure rate among metro areas with a population of at least 200,000. The city’s foreclosure activity increased 4% from the previous month and 78% from May 2008.

California and Florida accounted for the remainder of top 10 metro foreclosure rates.

California cities accounted for six of the top 10 spots: Stockton at No. 2 (one in 68 housing units), Modesto at No. 3 (one in 71), Riverside-San Bernardino at No. 4 (one in 75), Merced at No. 5 (one in 78), Bakersfield at No. 7 (one in 94), and Vallejo-Fairfield at No. 9 (one in 101).

Florida cities accounted for three of the top 10 spots: Cape Coral-Fort Myers at No. 6 (one in 82 housing units), Orlando-Kissimmee at No. 8 (one in 101), and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach at No. 10 (one in 105).

Are you a homeowner planning on moving up to a bigger or more expensive home? Here’s a guide for planning the transition in today’s foreclosure heavy market.

Figure out how much your current home is likely to sell for.
Have your real estate professional conduct a comparative market analysis. “Be realistic about pricing the home so it moves quickly,” adds Sandy Guralnik, a broker with Coldwell Banker United in Charlotte, N.C. This will help you avoid a long gap between when you buy your new home and sell your old one.

Consider the market.
If you have only been in the home two or three years and made little or no down payment, you probably do not have have enough equity to sell at a profit in today’s soft market. You might even owe more on the mortgage than the home is worth.  This is far to common in the current foreclosure heavy market.  On the other hand, if your home has appreciated well, it might be easier to move up to a bigger and better home than ever before!  Especially in Cambrian Park, Los Gatos, and Saratoga.  Cupertino has consistantly bucked the market recently.

Consider your finances.
Your overall debt picture is important if you plan to move into a larger, more expensive home. In addition to a higher mortgage, you’ll likely have higher utility, insurance and property taxes as well. If you owe money on a home equity loan, you’ll have to pay that back when you sell the home, which will eat into your profit.

Get preapproved by a reputable lender.
The lender will tell you how much money they’re willing to lend you, which will tell you how much house you can afford. Then, figure out how much you’re comfortable spending. The two numbers are not necessarily the same.  Your comfort zone should be your guide here.

Determine your long-term housing needs.
Will you be starting or expanding your family in a few years? Will the larger home be as teen-friendly as it is toddler-friendly? Is there a place for a home office if one of you eventually works from home?  With the many economy issues this should play a large part in your decision process.   Not to speak of the inventory that is available today.

Be realistic.
Most people will not be able to move up from a starter home into their dream home. It’s a long-term process that occurs over several moves, says Debbie Wong, a certified residential specialist with Prudential California Realty in San Mateo, Calif. Plus, it’s harder to qualify for a loan if the jump in monthly payments is too big, she says. Not to speak of all the hoops many lenders are expecting you to jump through now.

Preview properties in your target price range and location.
Most importantly does that “Super Foreclosure Deal” really translate into a home. Look to see whether the homes match your trade-up goals.

Get your home on the market.
Moving up will go more smoothly if you are able to sell your home before trying to buy another. For one thing, many Sellers are leery of contracts in which the sale is contingent on the Buyer selling their current home. Foreclosures are held by Banks that are not willing to diminish there pool of potential buyers.  If they accept your offer they will be required to place the home on a pending status and other buyers will be considering it. Finances also are an issue.   Bridge loans to carry you from your current home to the next are almost impossible to get today.

Determine the best time for your move.
If you want to move in the summertime, start your other preparations early enough to meet that goal.

Wow,  it’s 98 degrees out!  The number of sales for the month of April for Santa Clara County are also hot and very encouraging.    It is obvious our market is stabilizing,  finally!  Or is it?  Could this just be a spike that will pop this little bubble?

If  I were a gambling man, I would bet that the heat today might keep (some) buyers away.  Nah!  Didn’t apply yesterday.

Yesterday,   Saturday,  there were so many agents and clients showing/viewing property that parking in front of many listings was hard to find.     Several new home listings, a few my clients found worth pursuing, were already looking at multiple offers.

The average days on market for the County was down by almost 30 days.     We were looking at 125+days and now we are seeing 108 days.   The average sales/listing price percentage is up to 96% and has held consistently here for a couple of months now.

I wonder if I should buy that 30,000sq ft home now.  It;s only $64mil.  Maybe after Ice Cream!

This question is asked of me everyday.   A short description of the differences should be addressed first.

Since Short Sales are more prevelant than REOs I will start there.    A Short Sale is , simply, the process of selling a home for less money than is owed to the mortgage company.   Commonly found in San Jose today,  the pitfalls of buying this type of home are many, it is important to realize it can be done however, the final price is determined by the bank.

Once the seller has accepted an offer, the listing agent, subsequent to submitting the third party authorization to communicate on your behalf, will submit it to the banks representative for approval.   The party to which the agent is communicating may only be representing the bank…a servicer.  This means we have now added a new layer.  How many times have you heard “I want it from the horses mouth”?  Well, it is not likey the horses mouth will be speaking.  It takes several days and sometimes weeks for your offer of Short Sale to be assigned to a negotiator (loss mitigation specialist) who will then begin the process of reconciling the numbers.

A BPO (broker price opinion..basically,  a market analysis) will be ordered to learn the market value of the property and a financial statement will be required from the seller.  Actually, what the seller has to produce is a very long list.   None of this can happen until the seller’s agent has packaged the offer correctly.    Mistakes here will set the procees back even further.  An experienced agent is paramount in these sale situations.  This is no place for a newbie.

If all is done well the  sale can proceed per the purchase contract.   The date that the bank approved the short sale is the ”actual date” the contract timelines begin.   This applies to REO sales too.

An REO, on the other hand, removes the seller’s emotions and other complications from the real estate equation.    Getting it “from the horses mouth” is bit more likely.   Still, there are servicing companies negotiating for the bank in most cases.    

Many buyers want to make offers below the asking price of an REO.   This can be fraught with problems.    The bank already priced the property according to a number of BPOs they have ordered and reviewed.    The highest and best price is the only offer they are interested in.  You want to be that offer.  No?  Yes, you do.  

The terms of the contract is where you are going to make your money.     With the bank focused on the price they leave open the terms of the contract for you to get your advantage.  A short escrow period or longer escrow,  escrow fees paid,  loan finance points paid and city or county transfer taxes are a few of the areas to negotiate your way to a great buy.  The question of repairs is asked often….Yes, banks make repairs on REOs!  I know you have heard different.   Clearly stated and evidenced, necessary, cost of repairs can be negotiated after your offer is accepted.   I have experienced this with buyer clients before.  Investors know this very well!  The bank does not MAKE the repairs…They reduce the price in accordance to the evidence and qualified estimates your agent must provide.   San Jose has many single family homes and condos, for sale, that you and your agent should be considering using these tools. 

What frustrations have you had trying to buy one of these homes?

While searching for a particular single family home for a recent buyer client, looking for REO’s (bank owned properties) (foreclosure to be specific), I kept getting the same results….good relative data that was current and up to date in the right communities.   In the meantime,  my new client forwarded a handful of MLS numbers and excitedly asked  “Can we see these foreclosure homes this afternoon?”   Funny thing was… They were no longer available.  One had a  pending sold status another was no longer on the market and the last one…I could not even find.

Frustrated, I asked my client where did you find these listings?   The answer was disappointing…another website.  I won’t share which one as I have found the data there to be poorly arranged and not current by any standards.   Figures!   I asked “Why would you go to another website to find a home when I have been sending you the most recent daily updates?”   I got another “figures” answer. …”I saw it on the web and they advertised on the TV news”.    Oh Gosh!  Not the web monkeys!

Many new websites and data exchanges have been popping up lately.  The problem with these other sites is that their data is third party.   They are built by web masters to capture leads that are then sold to the uninformed Real Estate agent looking for new business. These sites load from the same place your search is sourced from.  The one you set it up with your Realtor whom you probaly hired to find you the best home at the best price available.

Unfortunately, the web architecture does not have a true update process programmed in.  This allows for information to become old and irrelevant.    Much of the information is derived from Title records too.  If someone refinances their mortgage it will report it as a sale when it is “far from that”.   If you thought a home sold for $250,000 which was actullay in a million dollar neighborhood…good chance it did not REALLY sell.    Then there is the home that is $300,000 under market price….it actually sold 2 years ago!

In short,  all the homes available for sale were right here at their finger tips.   The data derived from this search tool is current, changes are updated by the minute and there is the capability to have any new results, based on the home search criteria, emailed directly to them.

The map search is the Best home search tool for many buyers.  This allows you to draw a line around a neighborhood and see only those results without being overwhelmed with a zip code search that will, invariably, return homes not anywhere near your desired neighborhood.   San Jose is rich in investors and fast, filtered results are paramount in being the first to find the best buys.

I hope I remember, the next time a meet a new client,  to share with them the dynamic web source for home buyers is right here.   Santa Clara County, Los Gatos, Cambrian, Blossom Valley, East Hills, Silver Creek, Milpitas, Fremont and Campbell etc… are included.   Cities in Merced, Stanislaus, Alameda and San Joaquin County are participating in the results found in this too.

Maybe I should post a bulletin on TV!