Michael Roberts' Blog -San Jose Homes, Real Estate and Houses for Sale

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650,000

That number represents 20% of eligible homeowners at least 60 days behind in their payments, according to the Treasury report. This is up from 16% a month earlier.

Despite the progress, housing counselors say the number of people falling into foreclosure vastly exceeds the ranks getting assistance. The number of filings hit a record high of 937,840 in the third quarter, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes. That’s a 5% increase from the second quarter and a 23% jump over the third quarter of 2008.

The $75 billion Obama plan is “lagging behind the massive number of foreclosures that continue to pile up,” said John Taylor, head of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition.

But administration officials have said that the program, which was projected to help up to 4 million homeowners, is on track.  On Track?  Which track?  Becsude, if it”s the ‘railroad’ track..we are in REAL trouble.

The above excerpt is from CNNMoney‘s reporting and I have to say I don’t believe the Loan Mod scammers are going to go away soon enough for this to get markedly different anytime soon.

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By signing the new bill, President Barack Obama has approved the first-time homebuyer tax credit extension which will extend the tax credit until April 30, 2010.

The extension is part of a $24 billion economic stimulus bill that will extend the $8,000 tax credit for homebuyers who are purchasing their first home from the current November 30 deadline and expands the program to offer a credit of $6,500 to homeowners who have lived in their current home for at least five years and are seeking to relocate.

The following details apply to the homebuyer tax credit expansion ..You may HAVE to pay it back!  Read On.

Who is Eligible

-First-time homebuyers, who are defined by the law as buyers who have not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase, may be eligible for up to an $8,000 tax credit.
-Existing homeowners who have been residing in their principal residence for five consecutive years out of the last eight and are purchasing a home to be their principal residence (“repeat buyer”), may be eligible for up to a $6,500 tax credit.

Income Limits
Homebuyers who file as single or head-of-household taxpayers can claim the full credit ($8,000 for first-time buyers and $6,500 for repeat buyers) if their modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is less than $125,000.

-For married couples filing a joint return, the combined income limit is $225,000.

-Single or head-of-household taxpayers who earn between $125,000 and $145,000, and married couples who earn between $225,000 and $245,000 are eligible to receive a partial credit.

-The credit is not available for single taxpayers whose MAGI is greater than $145,000 and married couples with a MAGI that exceeds $245,000.

Effective Dates
-The eligibility period for the tax credit is for homes purchased after Nov. 6, 2009, and before May 1, 2010. However, home purchases subject to a binding sales contract signed by April 30, 2010, will qualify for the tax credit provided closing occurs prior to July 1, 2010.

Types of Homes that Qualify
-All homes with a purchase price of less than $800,000 qualify, including newly-constructed or resale, and single-family detached, townhomes or condominiums, Short Sale and foreclosures provided that the home will be used as their principal residence. Vacation home and rental property purchases do NOT qualify.

Tax Credit is Refundable
-A refundable credit means that if the amount of income taxes you owe is less than the credit amount you qualify for, the government will send you a check for the difference.

-For example:
-A first-time buyer who qualifies for the full $8,000 credit who owes $5,000 in federal income taxes would pay nothing to the IRS and receive a $3,000 payment from the government. If you are due to receive a $1,000 refund, you would receive $9,000 ($1,000 plus the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit).

-A repeat buyer who owes $5,000 would pay nothing to the IRS and receive $1,500 back from the government. If you are due to get a $1,000 refund, you would get $7,500 ($1,000 plus the $6,500 repeat buyer tax credit).

-All qualified homebuyers can take the tax credit on their 2009 or 2010 income tax return.

Payback Provisions
The tax credit is a true credit. It does not have to be repaid unless the home owner sells or stops using the home as their principal residence within three years after the purchase.

So remember,  This is not for the short term buyer looking to make a buck.  It will be need to be repaid, upon the sale or transfer of title, at any time during the first 3 years.

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Short Sales with Countrywide B of A WaMu JPMorgan Chase are going to become more relevant in the coming year. I just got off the phone with Bof A regarding a short sale I am working to a close.  Word has it the short sale departments, at many mortgage lenders, are expanding and preparing for a bumpy 2-3 years.

UPDATE: 12/09 Changes are being implemented, on-line submission is one interesting change.

It may change the outlook in the foreclosure market as these institutions become more aware of their losses with REO’s.  It is obvious they are learning that the Short Sale option is the better answer.

This B of A employee was quite talkative and shared a few things we all need to know.  Fannie Mae (the government agency)  is causing the most trouble for everyone.   I  do not want to absolve all short sale departments from some responsibility here, yet.   Similar to trying to open a bank safe without a combo the banks have seen massive delays and required information changes coming from Fannie Mae in the form of more…..’forms’.

Have you ever been flustered by those pesky government forms?  You may be sympathetic to the bank….I am not!  I want to call a department speak to a ‘person’ and get the business done…Do you agree?

I have read tons of material from people who claim to have the golden key to helping people with short sales.  The problem is that each and every bank and each and every home/seller is different.  There is no one golden key.

Short Sale departments receive over 100000 faxes a day and most of the specialists have  well over a thousand files each.  Hire more specialists ever occur to anyone?  Each person considering a short sale option has very different financial needs, assets and goals.  Not to mention, different mortgage companies.

It is important to know where and how to make your short sale more visible with the mortgage servicer and understand how people work.  Hiring a short sale professional is strongly recommended one with experience and a temperament to fit.

Do banks lie?  Yes and No. The contact numbers are constantly changed, staff is moved around and responsibilities are adjusted all the time from the client bank (the one who hired the servicer i.e. Wells Fargo).  The client bank delegates directives to the servicer to create guidelines used to gain their short sale approval.  Changing the rules of the game.  Is that lying?

This link takes you to my FOX News Interview broadcast Video

Being prepared for these guideline changes, before they are implemented,  will reduce the anxiety in this very frustrating process.  Your chosen professional should have a strategy to employ.

When you are willing to change, bend, search, use good practices and LISTEN the ordeal will come to an acceptable close.

Find a professional to represent you, employ them and prepare for a few bumps.

Hold on turbulence are ahead as change is sometimes not easy.  I am preparing everyday for the next bump.   I have my seatbelt drawn tight.

Update 12/22/2009 New FHA lender rules for short sales

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It’s a no brainer that housing and jobs are interrelated.  Fix housing and jobs will follow in service sectors and and the manufacturing of products we need at home.

I believe only one thing is going to get our  economy moving again..Housing. We got here because Real Estate based derivatives failed to produce gains. Right?  No money, no growth and no jobs.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September 2009, rose 6.1% to 110.1 from a reading of 103.8 in August, and is 21.2% higher than September 2008 when it stood at 90.9. The gain from a year ago is the largest annual increase on record, and the index is at the highest level since December 2006 when it was 112.8.

We got here because Real Estate based derivatives failed to produce gains.   Well, then why doesn’t the government focus more on housing strategies? Obviously, it has been very effective!

This quote proves my point…

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the momentum is understandable. “What we’re witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month,” he said. “Home values will stabilize sooner rather than over-correcting. That, in turn, will mean wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families and lay the foundation for a durable economic recovery.”

What if  the Obama administration created another tax benefit for ALL buyers?  Better yet,  produce better guidelines that all banks must use to implement procedures that fast track short sales.  Oh, Oh, Oh I know!   LOAN MODS!!!!!  What happened to all the promises there?    Fix Housing-Fix America!

Even renters could see a benefit.   Consider an apartment owner who would not feel the need to raise rents to their max if he could only get a small loan mod.   Do you think you would be a ‘consumer’ again if you could get a loan mod?   I bet your answer is ” YEP”!  That new TV or new Dining Room table would become affordable for you and that only creates more jobs! Right?

So many sectors of the economy are dependent on housing that it is a big ‘no brainer’  that housing should be the focus.

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You always thought that over time your home would be worth it’s weight in gold  right?   Well,  maybe not exactly.   Now you are feeling like you are paying for a bottomless pit.   Many homeowners are considering alternatives to paying for their ‘non performing asset’ and Short Selling seems to have become the option of choice.

VIDEO

There are a number of other reasons you may need to consider the short sale option too.  Health, Job loss, divorce, relocation or a mortgage reset are hardships that your mortgage lender will agree are reason enough to allow a short sale if your assets are outweighed by your heavy mortgage burden.

There is some sunlight shining in your bottomless pit.

Your home is gold and there are miners digging for it right now.   If after consulting with your bank and finding your best option is selling then you will need to consult with the experts.  Your list should include your CPA, attorney and a Realtor experienced in navigating the short sale process.  These professionals will provide advice at little or no expense until the home is sold.

There are pitfalls to selling your home for less than you owe.   Your CPA can determine the tax implications, your Attorney; the legal ramifications and your Realtor will share the market opportunities,  strategies and process.

Al and Erin, homeowners in Sunnyvale, CA., say  “Be cautious in hiring  ‘so called’ short sale expiditer companies”.    Al and Erin hired one and learned the hard way that they were sold a load of gold colored rocks.  Not gold.    The company they hired took a fee at the front end and had no motivation to complete the process.  They already earned money.

Consulting with your team of professionals will save time and money.  Your mortgage lender will consider a short sale more readily when confronted with the alternatives this team will present to them and you will not be burdened with undo out of pocket expense.

Buying a short sale is like being a miner…A miner will dig and dig, for months, until they find gold right?  Buying a short sale can be very much like mining for gold.  You need to have a miner’s mindset and use better tools than the others.

“How many months is this going to take?”   This question is being asked with great regularity… too much really.   The answer…It depends on who has the mine.  Period.  If the Listing agent  (who has the mine or short sale) is not proactive then it doesn’t matter how hard your Realtor works or how high your offer is…you won’t find any gold.

Your Realtor is your mining pick.   They need to know how to qualify the listing agent’s knowledge, experience and ability or, at least, be willing to work to help the listing agent make progress with the bank who is ultimately going to approve the short sale and…shine the light on the gold.

A successful gold miner will have a map of the gold mine and know how to navigate it.   Your Realtor of choice will need to have a good map and understand the best way to navigate their way to the gold and extract it.   This map is developed through representing sellers AND buyers of  short sale properties, understanding all the pitfalls  and the best practices to avoid them.

More and more short sales will be coming to the market and,  the best homes and best buys available, will likely be short sales.   This is the market condition reality for the next year or longer according to Banking industry experts and Real Estate professionals based on market statistics and economic conditions.

The extremely low interest rates are bringing droves of buyers out and multiple offers on the best homes are the norm in San Jose as well as Los Gatos and all around Santa Clara County, for that matter.  Too many miners and not enough mines.  You can avoid having to compete with these buyers if you realize they are overlooking the opportunity in front of them.  The Short Sale properties.    Agents are avoiding them because they think  that most of them will never close.    Ahhaa!    The key!   Find other mines!  Be a good miner and have the sharpest pick!

Beware if you are selling your home or if you are an interested buyer.  This article published by the San Jose Mercury news tells a true story of a sad result of government intervention.

When David and Penny Mann decided it was time to move to a retirement community, their real estate agent told them that in this rough market, it could take months to sell their downtown San Jose Victorian. So they were thrilled to receive back-to-back offers in the first week, and they accepted the first offer of $560,000, from an enthusiastic young couple buying their first home.

“Things were sailing through,” said David Mann, a retired minister.

But just days before the sale was to close, an appraisal required by a new federal code came in $100,000 below the sale price, torpedoing the deal and sending the buyers and sellers into an emotional tailspin. It’s just one example of the turmoil this new rule-intended to prevent fraud-has caused: Appraisers say it is forcing many of them out of business while pushing up fees and derailing sales, all at a time when the real estate market can ill afford such problems.

The new rule, which took effect May 1, forbids brokers from hiring their own appraisers and requires intermediaries-called appraisal management companies-to choose them instead.

The change was intended to reduce the possibility that brokers and lenders would pressure appraisers to raise house values to match sale prices, regardless of the true value. It affects all loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The rule meant the Manns’ first appraisal, which came in at the full sales price and was conducted before the rule took effect, was invalid, and they needed a new one. The second appraiser, based in Oakland and sent by an appraisal management company, told the Manns’ agent he had never worked in San Jose. When his appraisal came in $100,000 below the offer price, the lender wouldn’t approve the buyers’ loan.

“That’s when the drama began,” Mann said. “There is something so wrong in all this,” said Georgie Huff, president of Capital Properties in downtown San Jose, who represented the Manns. “And a lot of qualified buyers and sellers are being victimized.”

No one is tracking the precise results of the new rule, but Bill Hillestad, strategic director of Think Big Work Small, which provides resources for the real estate industry and is pushing to have the rule repealed, says his research offers some clues.

In his online poll of industry professionals, about two-thirds of respondents said they had had at least one appraisal come in under the purchase price since the new rules took effect, with the average difference being more than $13,000. And 90% of respondents said they had lost at least one transaction.

Hillestad said the code has the potential to kill the country’s budding real estate recovery by depressing prices even more than the foreclosure crisis. If willing sellers and buyers agree on a price, the appraisal shouldn’t scuttle the deal, he said.

“We are exactly the kind of sale which our country needs in order to begin getting housing sales moving again,” Penny Mann wrote in a letter to the lender for the couple who wanted to buy their home. As David Mann put it, the deal he struck “was a new stake in the ground to revive this neighborhood.”

The new rule, called the Home Valuation Code of Conduct, is part of the settlement of a lawsuit filed by New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who had accused Washington Mutual of pressuring appraisers to inflate home values.

Accurate appraisals are necessary to prevent fraud in home sales and to protect lenders in case a loan holder defaults and the property has to be sold. Washington Mutual, however, was accused of inflating values to make more money on higher-priced loans.

While the intent was noble, the policy has had devastating consequences for some appraisers, many of whom have signed a petition (www.hvccpetition.com) to try to repeal the rule-a cause taken up by U.S. Rep. Gary Miller, a Southern California Republican who is co-sponsoring legislation asking for an 18-month moratorium.

A Santa Cruz appraiser who used to have about 10 jobs a month says she is now lucky to get just one, as the management companies change the way work is doled out. And instead of being paid between $350 and $500, she might get just $200. The management company pockets the difference. “I’m sure there were a lot of crooked appraisals. But to put every appraiser basically out of business is not OK,” said the appraiser, who didn’t want her name used for fear that she would jeopardize future work. “After having my business for 20 years, I’m about to lose my house.”

Qing Jiang, a San Jose appraiser, said the new rule is also having a chilling effect as appraisers, “to protect themselves, to avoid being accused of pushing values up, are putting the value at the lower end. This will push the housing values down and have a huge effect.”

For traditional home sellers like the Manns-both retired clergy with the United Church of Christ-the rule nearly cost them their retirement. The couple were waiting to take a tour of their new Southern California bungalow, near their children and grandchildren, when their agent called with the news that the deal was unraveling because of the second appraisal. “We postponed the tour for an hour,” Mann said, “and went to a neighborhood park and cried.”

The intentions of the HVCC rule have hurt more than helped and already struggling San Jose Real Estate market.

The buyers were equally devastated when their loan company balked at funding their mortgage. They had spent months looking for the perfect house, walking through at least 40 and viewing hundreds more online.

The Manns’ century-old Victorian was ideal for Michael Schlemmer, a lawyer. So the young lawyer was undeterred. “I’m an educated person. I’ve lived in the Bay Area my whole life,” he said. “I had no question it was worth $560,000-plus. Neither did my agent or the mortgage broker or the first appraiser who approved it.” Nor, as it turned out, did a third appraiser. After Huff insisted the management company send someone with a 408 area code, the value came in at the sales price. Early this month, after weeks of hand-wringing, the deal closed.

This is only one of the many pitfalls in this new market that we are having to overcome.   What challenges have you experienced?

San Jose Mercury News article

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This chart shows the market change we are experiencing. The current inventory is very low and the number of new listings coming to the market is slowing. There are only 5,575 properties listed for sale today.

Over 2 Billion dollars of sales have been closed in the second quarter of this year compared to 1.1 Billion in the first quarter of 2009.

Days on the market ( the term in which the property was listed and sold) has been slashed in the single family home arena from 103 to 92. 104 days on the market for Condo/Townhomes in Santa Clara County continues to be the norm.

It is my opinion, based on this information that prices are not going down anytime soon. Consider this: The average sales price for single family homes was at $567,338 in the first quarter and it is now, $641,208 a positive change of $73,870 in just three months.

That is an increase of over 10%. The Median Sale Price increased by $55,000! I have all the information required to help you make an offer that you can live with.  No,  There is no obligation.   We all need to work as a team today!

Are you in the “prices are going to drop camp”? Maybe you should start looking for a new campsite.

Now, I know all Real Estate is local.   Areas like Los Gatos and Cupertino are seeing a serious difference in activity compared to Milpitas and Sunnyvale.

Following  very active home sales for nearly 60 days creates a problem for everyone!   What is a market price now?   Is it a Seller’s market or a Buyer’s market.    Well,  it sure is a market of change in all areas of Santa Clara County according to market statistics. Consider these 10 facts…

1. A spike in local sales activity. A spike refers to a significant rise in the number of home sales (or values) in a local market area, which generally is measured month to month. A spike does not necessarily mean continued growth, i.e. it could be a one month phenomenon.

2. Higher asking and selling prices vs. appraisal value opinions for residential properties. Appraisers study the markets; they do not make the markets. When the data shows higher sale prices in comparable properties market value opinions will increase proportionally. Appraisers seek evidence of value but do not create the value. In time periods with low activity, evidence of any kind is difficult to find.

3. More activity at open houses. Open houses with five to eight attendees is considered average,  so a dozen or more people attending, like we are seeing in Los Gatos and Cupertino,  open houses means buyer interest is picking up. Also, the mood of the attendees is important. Are they optimist and upbeat? Buyers interest alone does not always translate to effective purchasing power. If the number of buyers in the market increases but they do not have requisite down payments, the sales may still not occur.

4. Shorter marketing times. In some markets like  Downtown San Jose, houses have been up for sale for more than a year. In most balanced residential markets, properties that are priced competitively will typically sell in less than six months. If the Days On Market (DOM) is shortening, many practitioners will read an improvement in the market.

5. Reduced number of foreclosures and short sales. A reduction in these transactions commonly signals a more balanced market. This has become very evident in the  Cambrian area.  If lenders are reluctant to foreclose because of an oversupply of inventory, they may choose to wait to repossess the properties, which could allow a spike in the number of foreclosures later despite a better market condition.

6. Stabilized employment. Stable or increasing employment rates provide the necessary confidence for potential buyers to invest in a home. Since most buyers rely on borrowed funds to make real estate purchases and borrowing money usually requires a source of repayment and that usually means jobs, an increase in this basic need, will enable more real estate sales.

7. Fewer buyer incentives and seller concessions. Seller-paid incentives or concessions are a sign of seller motivation. If there are fewer builders offering “free” upgrades and fewer sellers sweetening the deal with big screen TVs, it may be a sign of lessening supply and therefore a better market.  The First Time Buyer Tax Credit is helping here a bunch!

8. New construction starts. Most builders are quite attune to their markets and will not build new homes without a corresponding contract for sale or a perceived increase in demand. An increase in the number of building permits usually indicates higher demand and higher prices. If residential properties are selling for 25% less than they cost to build, only a few new homes will be built. It would be prudent to buy an existing home rather than build a new one for a much higher price.

9. “Move-up” buyers entering the market. More buyers willing to move to a larger or superior quality home indicates a healthy market. The lack of buyers at the lower end of the price range will have a chain reaction throughout the market. If a buyer for a high priced home has a lower priced home to sell first, the sale of the higher priced home may have to occur before the higher priced one can sell.

10. Apartments advertising renter specials - fewer renters in the market may indicate more people are moving into owner occupied homes or it could indicate a reduction in population. Lower population will cause an oversupply of housing which will oftentimes permeate throughout several markets.

RealtyTrac®, one of the leading online marketplaces for foreclosure properties, released its May 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report^TM, which shows foreclosure filings-default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions-were reported on 321,480 U.S. properties during the month, a decrease of 6% from the previous month but an increase of nearly 18% from April 2008. The report also shows that one in every 398 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in May.

“May foreclosure activity was the third highest month on record, and marked the third straight month where the total number of properties with foreclosure filings exceeded 300,000 – a first in the history of our report,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “While defaults and scheduled foreclosure auctions were both down from the previous month, bank repossessions, or REOs, were up 2% thanks largely to substantial increases in several states, including Michigan, Arizona, Washington, Nevada, Oregon and New York. We expect REO activity to spike in the coming months as foreclosure delays and moratoria implemented by various state laws come to an end.”

Nevada, California, Florida post top state foreclosure rates

Nevada continued to document the nation’s highest foreclosure rate, with one in every 64 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month – more than six times the national average.

With one in every 144 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month, California posted the nation’s second highest state foreclosure rate despite a 4% decrease in foreclosure activity from the previous month.

Florida posted the third highest state foreclosure rate in May, with one in every 148 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing during the month

Arizona posted the fourth highest state foreclosure rate in May, with one in every 158 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing, and Utah posted the fifth highest state foreclosure rate, with one in every 316 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing.

Other states with foreclosure rates ranking among the nation’s 10 highest were Michigan, Georgia, Colorado, Idaho and Ohio.

Top 10 states account for nearly 77% of total U.S. foreclosure activity.

California reported 92,249 properties with foreclosure filings in May, the highest total of any state and up nearly 23% from May 2008. Bank repossessions in California were down 1% from the previous month and defaults were down 18%, but scheduled auctions were up 18%.

Default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions in Florida were all down from the previous month, but the state still posted the nation’s second highest number of properties with foreclosure filings: 58,931, up 50% from May 2008.

Nevada documented 17,157 properties with foreclosure filings in May, the third highest total of any state and up nearly 83% from May 2008. A 23% increase in bank repossessions helped push Nevada foreclosure activity up 5% from the previous month.

Other states with totals among the 10 highest in the country were Arizona (16,865), Michigan (13,891), Ohio (11,360), Illinois (10,942), Georgia (10,516), Texas (9,813) and Virginia (5,385). The top 10 states accounted for nearly 77% of total properties with foreclosure filings nationwide.

California, Florida, Nevada dominate top 10 metro foreclosure rates
Foreclosure filings were reported on 14,681 Las Vegas properties in May, one in every 54 housing units – more than seven times the national average and the highest foreclosure rate among metro areas with a population of at least 200,000. The city’s foreclosure activity increased 4% from the previous month and 78% from May 2008.

California and Florida accounted for the remainder of top 10 metro foreclosure rates.

California cities accounted for six of the top 10 spots: Stockton at No. 2 (one in 68 housing units), Modesto at No. 3 (one in 71), Riverside-San Bernardino at No. 4 (one in 75), Merced at No. 5 (one in 78), Bakersfield at No. 7 (one in 94), and Vallejo-Fairfield at No. 9 (one in 101).

Florida cities accounted for three of the top 10 spots: Cape Coral-Fort Myers at No. 6 (one in 82 housing units), Orlando-Kissimmee at No. 8 (one in 101), and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach at No. 10 (one in 105).