131 Millrich Dr.  this Los Gatos house sold for nearly 1% less than the asking and 411 Clearview Dr., a townhome, sold for nearly 5% over the listing price !

A reminder that ’sweet spotting’ your asking price will always pay off.

The good news….neither property was a short sale.

2 Los Gatos Houses sold this week,

131 MILLRICH DR, Los Gatos 95030 (Los Gatos)Single Family Home 3 bed(s) Baths: 4|1 bath(s)   SqFt: 2,593  Lot: 9,100 sq ft

List Price: $1,449,000     Sold Price $1,332,000.00

______________________________________________________

411 CLEARVIEW DR, Los Gatos 95032 (Los Gatos)Townhouse  3 Beds, 2|1 Baths:  SqFt: 2,122 Lot: 2,220 sq ft

List Price: $749,000 Sale Price: $780,000

Assoc. Fee: $428

We see a crossroads ahead…one where the buyers in the Los Gatos Real Estate Market aren’t in the driver’s seat.    Could this mean the homes for sale are in a Seller’s market?

Remember…

Spring is coming and the end of the $8000 First time buyer’s credit is there waiting.   I wonder if will  lead to more vigorous sales?…bidding?

Tait Ave Home Sold In Los Gatos

You can do a detailed search for homes available for  sale in the  the Los Gatos Real Estate market here.

The median price of a home in California experienced its first year-to-year gain in over two years during the month of November, as the California housing market continued recent trends in terms of prices, supply, and sales. The monthly median price crossed the $300,000 threshold in November with a median of $304,520, up 2.4 percent from the October median price of $297,500 and up 5.8 percent from $287,880 a year earlier. The situation has improved greatly from a year ago during the worst of the financial crisis, when the median price had registered 41.3 percent year-to-year decline.

This supports the conclusion

After a 59 percent peak-to-trough decline, the California median price has increased 24.1 percent from a trough of $245,170 that occurred in February 2009.  The increase in price has been sustained by a combination of lean supply and high demand, the latter triggered by historically high affordability (See November article). By comparison, the NAR national median price for existing single family homes, which experienced a 29 percent peak-to-trough decline, has increased by 4.7 percent from its trough of $164,200 in January 2009 to $171,900 in November 2009.

This has been obvious in the Bay Area market, especially affluent areas such as Los Gatos and Cupertino.

Nine consecutive month-to-month increases in the California median price have been the result of the lean inventory conditions throughout the year. The MLS-based unsold inventory index for California has averaged 4.8 months since the start of the year, well below the 7 month long run average. (See the October article for an analysis of the relationship between MLS-based unsold inventory, defaults, and foreclosures). By comparison, the national unsold inventory index for single family homes has averaged 8.4 months over the year. Inventory levels in both California and the US have trended down for most of the year.

As for sales, California returned to pre-peak levels of sales in late 2008 and sustained them throughout 2009. With sales of 536,720 homes in November, the market was 4.6 percent lower than the October sales figure of 562,400, but 4.7 percent above the November 2008 figure of 512,840. Sales throughout the year have averaged 545,600, compared with the pre-peak monthly average over the 2000-2002 period of 537,300 homes. Over the 2000-2002 period, US sales of existing homes averaged 4.8 million homes, compared with the low- to mid-4 million range of sales that the national market experienced from late 2007 until late this year when sales

The year-to-year increase in the California median price is the latest sign of turnaround from the dire circumstances facing the statewide housing market a year ago. Its foreclosure problems notwithstanding, California’s housing market appears to be ahead of the national market, both in terms of hitting bottom and in demonstrating important signs of market stability and improvement.

The median price of a home sold in the county rose 9.9 percent compared to a year ago to $494,400 in November, according to MDA Dataquick, the second straight month of year-to-year increases.

The number of homes sold also rose 47.2 percent to 1,649 in Santa Clara County.

“The latest stats show just how much the Bay Area market has changed in a year,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

The question I hear most is…”Has the market bottomed out?”

If this price trend continues for another quarter I will answer with a firm, yes.   For now,  let’s agree that the prices are not falling and the inventory is very low especially,  in the Los Gatos Real Estate Market.  This usually means higher prices, not to mention, the low 4.8% 30 year fixed mortgage rates available.

The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,639 last month, down from $1,665 the previous month, and down from $1,695 a year ago reports Dataquick.

That’s 52.2 percent below the current cycle’s peak in July 2007.   What a steep slide.  It’s true that more streamlined Short Sale process will balance the severely discounted REO closings to help further the trend too.

Looking forward to 2010?

related stories

Fannie Mae needs help

2008-2009 chart

Fixer Upper Fix

The rumor several banks have agreed to streamline short sales is true and will certainly make the spanking a light one.  How do I know?  When I inquired why my calls were not being returned, for a few days in October, contacts at BofA told me they were being trained for a new program to expedite…something.

This ’something’ has something to do with…

• What affect Loan Modifications have on Fannie Mae
• How does streamlining  Short Sales make any sense
• What is a  Shadow Inventory?
• How does Macro Economics play a roll?

Foreclosures are Down

From RealtyTrac.…“November was the fourth straight month that U.S. foreclosure activity has declined after hitting an all-time high for our report in July, and November foreclosure activity was at the lowest level we’ve seen since February,” says James J. Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac. “Loan modifications and other foreclosure prevention efforts, along with the recently extended and expanded home-buyer tax credit, are keeping a lid on the most visible symptoms of the nation’s ailing housing market — foreclosures and home value depreciation.”

But!  Loan Modifications are Failing

True, the temporary loan modification program just ended…opening the door for permanent modifications.   That is if the temporary loan mod payment schedules were met by applicants,  Right?   Yes.  That is not what is happening though.   After the inexcusable delays, lost documents and lack of communication borrowers are giving up on this failed theory.   Fannie Mae (may) be looking at a nasty spanking through increased foreclosures if alternatives aren’t implemented.

Shadow Inventory Myth or Fact

Have you heard the term  ‘Shadow Inventory’ (SI)?  The belief that banks have tons of foreclosures?  Keeping them in the ’shadows’ as inventory?   It’s true but, not the conspiracy many have theorized.  I know of several cases where people are several months past the default deadlines and still have not heard from the Sheriff (meaning they have not been officially foreclosed on in practice).  This is one way a  shadow inventory is created.

Taking into consideration that modifying loans will not help those who can’t afford their payments, unemployment numbers comes to mind,  it makes perfect sense that an expedited short sale process is the best solution.

Short Sales -  The Next Best Thing to a Spanking

Since Short Sales net more money than REOs (foreclosures) it is reasonable to expect banks to promote them by doing… something like this.

Fannie Mae insures many mortgages and subsequently gets spanked for the losses following low net REO sales.

note: Watch for legislation changes next year.   Fannie Mae holds an enormous amount of political  leverage and the mid term elections are coming!

Removing the stigma that foreclosures place on the market, through short selling,  stabilizes prices, reduces shadow inventory and improves the outlook as a whole.   Perfect!  download FHA short Sale Guidlines PDF

Macro Economics…my tiny brain version

Since you have read this far let me create a ‘big picture’ with my tiny brain.    Banks are myopic to the degree that they are in the business to make money.    Looking at Real Estate as being a single issue for the banks,  makes us myopic.

A Real Estate investment is the single largest investment a person will make. When it fails to produce dividends (equity) it affects ones entire financial situation. This is no less true for banks.

Think about it..not only mortgages…they are battling delinquent credit cards, bad car loans, signature loans etc..  All leading to huge losses and fewer potential investors.  The banks see what is on their horizon and are working to prevent it at all ‘cost’ (or loan from the taxpayer).  Better save that for another time, so…

Fannie Mae (may) get a spanking, but it may be one of affection rather than discipline if the foreclosure fears are relieved.  This can ONLY be done through the streamlining of short sales.  Think I am wrong?  Don’t bet on it.

related articles

Only 4% get long term help

Mortgage help coming slow to many

Back taxes Plague Loan Mods

No Jobs!  No Deal!

15400 VIA PALOMINO Single Family  4 bed(s) /3|1 bath(s)23,482 sq ft     Monte Sereno $2,395,000

16242 AZALEA WY Single Family  3 bed(s) /2|0 bath(s) 8,000 sq ft Los Gatos   $1,229,000

102 HOLLYCREST DR Single Family 3 bed(s) /2|0 bath(s) 7,070 sq ft  Los Gatos  $799,000

14225 LORA DR #102 Condominium 2 bed(s) /1|0 bath(s)     2,242 sq ft Los Gatos $345,000

These homes all sold for below their asking price from  High reduction of -9% for Lora Drive and low price reduction of 3% for Azelea Way.  Home sellers and agents in Los Gatos and surrounding areas should take heed of the substantial reductions made this week.    The days on market or CDOM are more relevant factors in pricing homes today than we have seen in the past few years.

This article  (here) is evidence our market is doing better than average.

Image via Wikipedia

5 New HomeOwners and 5 Successful Sellers makes for great news this past week.

220 BERSANO LN, Los Gatos 95030
$1,729,000 Beds: 4 bed(s) Baths: 3|0 bath(s)

17050 Wild WY, Los Gatos 95030
$1,485,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2|0 bath(s)

16345 LOS GATOS BL #49, Los Gatos 95032 (Los Gatos)
$510,000 Beds: 2 bed(s) Baths: 1|1 bath(s)

30800 LOMA CHIQUITA RD, Los Gatos Mtns 95033 (Los Gatos Mtns)
$159,000   Raw Land

14685 OKA RD #11, Los Gatos 95032 (Los Gatos)
$140,000 Beds: 3 bed(s) Baths: 2|0 bath(s) Mobile Home

There are 12 new Los Gatos listings for the week you can see these new listings using comprehensive search tool on my home page.

Buying the listing is when an agent will do anything to stick a sign in your flower bed, including listing at a higher price just to get you to sign on the dotted line.  I call it,  sticking it to you.  That’s exactly what it is when you consider the fact that your home will see little exposure, sit on the market longer and end up selling for less than you expected.  It happens every time!

Elizabeth Weintraub writes “…Maybe the first agent knows there will be two other agents competing for the listing, so the first agent names an astronomical figure. The second agent, upon hearing the first agent’s price, beats it. The third agent comes in higher yet.”

This is all based on the fact you have already implemented the basic tips to sell your home.

Are you thinking “but, if a buyer offers less than we are asking we can’t negotiate”?  If your home is priced right you will have several buyers considering an offer.  This presents a problem for the buyers, a level of uncertainty that you will even consider their low offer.  Hence, the offers that come will be more in line with the market.  Less serious buyers will go fishing elsewhere and not waste your time.

This salesman ‘buy the listing’ tactic only leads to more work than is necessary. I had a similar experience of my own when I recently sold my personal residence.  I don’t use ‘buy the listing’ tactics but, market conditions led to the same result.    The market was falling and I had to lower my price two times to catch a buyer.  It was like chasing the market downhill.  If I had known the banking system was going to experience such failures I would have listed at the eventual selling price from the onset to avoid the trouble.

In reality, the chance a home will sell in the first few weeks is far greater when it is priced correctly and prepared well.  Sounds intuitive enough, Right?   Go look at some homes for sale and see how little thought is given to home preparation.   This is especially important when considering a short sale.   The sooner you can yield a willing buyer the sooner you can move the time consuming process forward.

Showhomes, a national franchised home stager staged Tracy Truitt’s listing and it sold in eight days.   Tracey said…“I had an almost full price offer within a week of Showhomes’ staging, and a 25% higher offer than the two offers that had come in previously to the home being staged,” Truitt says.

I found keeping my house prepared well, clean and neat, was tiresome after just a couple of weeks.  I am a terrible merry maid.  If I had to deal with a Realtor I would have lost my mind!  I know can do better than some..look at what  these people did.

Each time I made a price adjustment more people called and disrupted breakfast, dinner and quiet family time.  It was unnerving more than once.  Buyers  sense  desperation when you drop your price and lower offers will follow.

You can guard against this by simply stepping outside your bubble and looking at the competition in an unbiased fashion.  This means you will have to forget all the trouble and expense you suffered when you updated and improved your home.  A buyer’s eye only sees your home compared to other like properties that are available.  You must do the same. No one cares if Aunt Clara helped you cook your first Turkey there.

Is this boring yet?

Wake up!  Do a Walk Score or a Megans Law search for your home? How about a Crime Report review?   I will bet my favorite tie that buyers considering your home are.  Think like a buyer!

Following your internet searches and open house viewings you can reasonably determine what your home should sell for. This will afford you the knowledge and understanding to say no to –salespeople-.  Half hearted buyers will resist the urge to make low ball offers and serious buyers will make their highest and best offers.

Would you be interested in learning what buyers complain about most?  If so, please comment and I will provide a definitive list and some ideas to overcome them.

Tips on Appraisals

One in Four Homes Lowered Price

Why do agents take over priced listings

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Do you remember that commercial?  Was it a Mr. Goodwrench add?   We now know we payed them then and bailed them out this year!  Payed both times.   Ugh!

Pay now or Pay Later?  That is the question in our mortgage market now…not  Shakespearean,  but profound considering….Should you jump?

Mortgage rates eased for the fourth consecutive week, hitting historic lows well below 5 percent this week, Freddie Mac said in releasing the results of its latest Freddie Mac Reports.

Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.78 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending Nov. 25, down from 4.83 percent last week and 5.97 percent a year ago.

This is what we have been expecting and will lead to higher rates as the market change cycles.  Not to mention the 1.25T  the Federal Reserve is spending to buy mortgage backed securities from Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae.

The program is going to continue through March 2010 which makes you wonder…Why are they delaying the inevitable?   The program was supposed to be finished up at the end of this year.   The answer is:  To keep the rates low.   Thank you for that.  What happens when the rates increase?

The Mortgage Bankers Association last month projected that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will hit 5.4 percent next year, 6 percent in 2011, and 6.3 percent in 2012.   Inflation?

I would suggest buyers take this seriously.  Would you rather pay rate to a mortgage bank or a few thousand hard dollars now?

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Great news has just been released by Real Estate information service DataQuick – Prices and sales are up in the  nine Bay Area counites !  Maybe not great news for twitchy buyers though.

Silicon Valley Business Journal reports -”The Bay Area’s housing market continued to ease back toward normalcy in October, as fewer distressed properties sold and $500,000-plus sales accounted for a greater share of transactions than a year ago.”

In Santa Clara County the median price in October was $500,000, up 4.8 percent from $477,000 in October 2008. Sales were up 27.9 percent to 1,944.  It has been like the woman assistant in magic show-disappearing.

In June I asked is this a spike in prices?

In addition to the Bay Area overall, three counties – Santa Clara, Marin and Sonoma – saw their median sale prices rise year-over-year last month. The last time that more than one county posted an annual gain in the median was November 2007. Also last month, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Francisco and the nine-county region overall posted single-digit annual gains in their median price paid for a specific home-type: resale single-family detached houses.

Barbara Corcoran ‘Today” Video “homes around the country”

Ok twitchy buyers… here’s a bone…Prices are still lower than they were in 2005.   Your friends may be unwilling to sell their homes,  since they bought at the sharp peak,  but there is an abundance of others to choose from.

How much longer do you think the housing market could withstand the price ‘depression’ in Silicon Valley?

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