Michael Roberts' Blog -San Jose Homes, Real Estate and Houses for Sale

Have you noticed?   Most markets are experiencing a price stabilization, however there are price reductions being made even as late as October.    43% of homes listed in 27 major markets saw price reductions of  $24,781 dollars.

From Rismedia:

Other highlights of the brokerage’s monthly survey of price reduction data include:
-Miami-area (Ft. Lauderdale/Palm Beach) homeowners reduced list prices by the largest percentage at 15.7% or $40,000 on average
-Homeowners in Raleigh-Durham reduced prices by the smallest percentage at 4.6% or $11,000 on average
-Of the markets studied, those with the highest percentage of price-reduced homes are Jacksonville (50.9%), Orlando (50.1%) and Chicago (50.1%)
-Markets with the lowest percentage of price-reduced homes are Denver (31.1%), Los Angeles (33.6%), Sacramento (36.4%) and San Diego (35.7%)
-Markets where sellers have cut the most in absolute dollars are: San Diego ($54,000 median price reduction), Orange County, Calif. ($51, 000 median price reduction), San Francisco ($50,500 median price reduction) and Los Angeles ($43,000 median price reduction).
-As in September, Orange County had the highest median list price at $624,900. Jacksonville, Fla. has the lowest median list price at $172,000.

I love this video series…California from 1939

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650,000

That number represents 20% of eligible homeowners at least 60 days behind in their payments, according to the Treasury report. This is up from 16% a month earlier.

Despite the progress, housing counselors say the number of people falling into foreclosure vastly exceeds the ranks getting assistance. The number of filings hit a record high of 937,840 in the third quarter, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes. That’s a 5% increase from the second quarter and a 23% jump over the third quarter of 2008.

The $75 billion Obama plan is “lagging behind the massive number of foreclosures that continue to pile up,” said John Taylor, head of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition.

But administration officials have said that the program, which was projected to help up to 4 million homeowners, is on track.  On Track?  Which track?  Becsude, if it”s the ‘railroad’ track..we are in REAL trouble.

The above excerpt is from CNNMoney‘s reporting and I have to say I don’t believe the Loan Mod scammers are going to go away soon enough for this to get markedly different anytime soon.

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It’s a no brainer that housing and jobs are interrelated.  Fix housing and jobs will follow in service sectors and and the manufacturing of products we need at home.

I believe only one thing is going to get our  economy moving again..Housing. We got here because Real Estate based derivatives failed to produce gains. Right?  No money, no growth and no jobs.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September 2009, rose 6.1% to 110.1 from a reading of 103.8 in August, and is 21.2% higher than September 2008 when it stood at 90.9. The gain from a year ago is the largest annual increase on record, and the index is at the highest level since December 2006 when it was 112.8.

We got here because Real Estate based derivatives failed to produce gains.   Well, then why doesn’t the government focus more on housing strategies? Obviously, it has been very effective!

This quote proves my point…

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the momentum is understandable. “What we’re witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month,” he said. “Home values will stabilize sooner rather than over-correcting. That, in turn, will mean wealth stabilization for the vast number of middle-class families and lay the foundation for a durable economic recovery.”

What if  the Obama administration created another tax benefit for ALL buyers?  Better yet,  produce better guidelines that all banks must use to implement procedures that fast track short sales.  Oh, Oh, Oh I know!   LOAN MODS!!!!!  What happened to all the promises there?    Fix Housing-Fix America!

Even renters could see a benefit.   Consider an apartment owner who would not feel the need to raise rents to their max if he could only get a small loan mod.   Do you think you would be a ‘consumer’ again if you could get a loan mod?   I bet your answer is ” YEP”!  That new TV or new Dining Room table would become affordable for you and that only creates more jobs! Right?

So many sectors of the economy are dependent on housing that it is a big ‘no brainer’  that housing should be the focus.

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Buying a short sale is like being a miner…A miner will dig and dig, for months, until they find gold right?  Buying a short sale can be very much like mining for gold.  You need to have a miner’s mindset and use better tools than the others.

“How many months is this going to take?”   This question is being asked with great regularity… too much really.   The answer…It depends on who has the mine.  Period.  If the Listing agent  (who has the mine or short sale) is not proactive then it doesn’t matter how hard your Realtor works or how high your offer is…you won’t find any gold.

Your Realtor is your mining pick.   They need to know how to qualify the listing agent’s knowledge, experience and ability or, at least, be willing to work to help the listing agent make progress with the bank who is ultimately going to approve the short sale and…shine the light on the gold.

A successful gold miner will have a map of the gold mine and know how to navigate it.   Your Realtor of choice will need to have a good map and understand the best way to navigate their way to the gold and extract it.   This map is developed through representing sellers AND buyers of  short sale properties, understanding all the pitfalls  and the best practices to avoid them.

More and more short sales will be coming to the market and,  the best homes and best buys available, will likely be short sales.   This is the market condition reality for the next year or longer according to Banking industry experts and Real Estate professionals based on market statistics and economic conditions.

The extremely low interest rates are bringing droves of buyers out and multiple offers on the best homes are the norm in San Jose as well as Los Gatos and all around Santa Clara County, for that matter.  Too many miners and not enough mines.  You can avoid having to compete with these buyers if you realize they are overlooking the opportunity in front of them.  The Short Sale properties.    Agents are avoiding them because they think  that most of them will never close.    Ahhaa!    The key!   Find other mines!  Be a good miner and have the sharpest pick!

This chart shows the market change we are experiencing. The current inventory is very low and the number of new listings coming to the market is slowing. There are only 5,575 properties listed for sale today.

Over 2 Billion dollars of sales have been closed in the second quarter of this year compared to 1.1 Billion in the first quarter of 2009.

Days on the market ( the term in which the property was listed and sold) has been slashed in the single family home arena from 103 to 92. 104 days on the market for Condo/Townhomes in Santa Clara County continues to be the norm.

It is my opinion, based on this information that prices are not going down anytime soon. Consider this: The average sales price for single family homes was at $567,338 in the first quarter and it is now, $641,208 a positive change of $73,870 in just three months.

That is an increase of over 10%. The Median Sale Price increased by $55,000! I have all the information required to help you make an offer that you can live with.  No,  There is no obligation.   We all need to work as a team today!

Are you in the “prices are going to drop camp”? Maybe you should start looking for a new campsite.

Now, I know all Real Estate is local.   Areas like Los Gatos and Cupertino are seeing a serious difference in activity compared to Milpitas and Sunnyvale.

Following  very active home sales for nearly 60 days creates a problem for everyone!   What is a market price now?   Is it a Seller’s market or a Buyer’s market.    Well,  it sure is a market of change in all areas of Santa Clara County according to market statistics. Consider these 10 facts…

1. A spike in local sales activity. A spike refers to a significant rise in the number of home sales (or values) in a local market area, which generally is measured month to month. A spike does not necessarily mean continued growth, i.e. it could be a one month phenomenon.

2. Higher asking and selling prices vs. appraisal value opinions for residential properties. Appraisers study the markets; they do not make the markets. When the data shows higher sale prices in comparable properties market value opinions will increase proportionally. Appraisers seek evidence of value but do not create the value. In time periods with low activity, evidence of any kind is difficult to find.

3. More activity at open houses. Open houses with five to eight attendees is considered average,  so a dozen or more people attending, like we are seeing in Los Gatos and Cupertino,  open houses means buyer interest is picking up. Also, the mood of the attendees is important. Are they optimist and upbeat? Buyers interest alone does not always translate to effective purchasing power. If the number of buyers in the market increases but they do not have requisite down payments, the sales may still not occur.

4. Shorter marketing times. In some markets like  Downtown San Jose, houses have been up for sale for more than a year. In most balanced residential markets, properties that are priced competitively will typically sell in less than six months. If the Days On Market (DOM) is shortening, many practitioners will read an improvement in the market.

5. Reduced number of foreclosures and short sales. A reduction in these transactions commonly signals a more balanced market. This has become very evident in the  Cambrian area.  If lenders are reluctant to foreclose because of an oversupply of inventory, they may choose to wait to repossess the properties, which could allow a spike in the number of foreclosures later despite a better market condition.

6. Stabilized employment. Stable or increasing employment rates provide the necessary confidence for potential buyers to invest in a home. Since most buyers rely on borrowed funds to make real estate purchases and borrowing money usually requires a source of repayment and that usually means jobs, an increase in this basic need, will enable more real estate sales.

7. Fewer buyer incentives and seller concessions. Seller-paid incentives or concessions are a sign of seller motivation. If there are fewer builders offering “free” upgrades and fewer sellers sweetening the deal with big screen TVs, it may be a sign of lessening supply and therefore a better market.  The First Time Buyer Tax Credit is helping here a bunch!

8. New construction starts. Most builders are quite attune to their markets and will not build new homes without a corresponding contract for sale or a perceived increase in demand. An increase in the number of building permits usually indicates higher demand and higher prices. If residential properties are selling for 25% less than they cost to build, only a few new homes will be built. It would be prudent to buy an existing home rather than build a new one for a much higher price.

9. “Move-up” buyers entering the market. More buyers willing to move to a larger or superior quality home indicates a healthy market. The lack of buyers at the lower end of the price range will have a chain reaction throughout the market. If a buyer for a high priced home has a lower priced home to sell first, the sale of the higher priced home may have to occur before the higher priced one can sell.

10. Apartments advertising renter specials - fewer renters in the market may indicate more people are moving into owner occupied homes or it could indicate a reduction in population. Lower population will cause an oversupply of housing which will oftentimes permeate throughout several markets.

Wow,  it’s 98 degrees out!  The number of sales for the month of April for Santa Clara County are also hot and very encouraging.    It is obvious our market is stabilizing,  finally!  Or is it?  Could this just be a spike that will pop this little bubble?

If  I were a gambling man, I would bet that the heat today might keep (some) buyers away.  Nah!  Didn’t apply yesterday.

Yesterday,   Saturday,  there were so many agents and clients showing/viewing property that parking in front of many listings was hard to find.     Several new home listings, a few my clients found worth pursuing, were already looking at multiple offers.

The average days on market for the County was down by almost 30 days.     We were looking at 125+days and now we are seeing 108 days.   The average sales/listing price percentage is up to 96% and has held consistently here for a couple of months now.

I wonder if I should buy that 30,000sq ft home now.  It;s only $64mil.  Maybe after Ice Cream!

Good News for both Sellers and Buyers.

Sellers will sell and buyers will buy at a 40% discount statewide according to the California Association of Realtors.

quote:

“Statewide sales in January edged past the 600,000 threshold for the first time since October 2005,” said C.A.R. President James Liptak. “The strength in California home sales in recent months signifies that the market is gradually working its way through the large numbers of distressed sales that have followed in the wake of the troubled mortgage problem. With favorable home prices and historically low mortgage rates, affordability in the California housing market is now at its highest since the start of the decade.” unquote

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 624,940 in January at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 100.8% from the revised 311,160 sales pace recorded in January 2008. Sales in January 2009 increased 14% compared with the previous month.

The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2009 would be if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during January 2009 was $254,350, a 40.5% decrease from the revised $427,200 median for January 2008, C.A.R. reported. The January 2009 median price fell 9.5% compared with December’s revised $281,180 median price.

“A lot of attention has rightfully been directed toward the high number of distressed properties,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “California’s housing market also is feeling the effects of a drought in the availability of jumbo mortgage loans.

“Since the start of the credit crisis in 2007, jumbo lending has been severely constrained to the point where markets that rely on jumbo loans experienced a 24% year-to-year decline in sales in the month of January. This stands in contrast to the 100% sales gain the overall market experienced,” she said.

Highlights of C.A.R.’s resale housing figures for January 2009:

- C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in January 2009 was 6.7 months, compared with 16.6 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
- Thirty-year fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 5.05% during January 2009, compared with 5.76% in January 2008, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable-mortgage interest rates averaged 4.92% in January 2009, compared with 5.23% in January 2008.
- The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 49.9 days in January 2009, compared with 70.8 days (revised) for the same period a year ago.

In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, none of the 331 cities and communities reporting showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago. DataQuick statistics are based on county records data rather than MLS information. DataQuick Information Systems is a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. (The top 10 list is generated for incorporated cities with a minimum of 30 recorded sales in the month.)

Note: Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices for January may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand.

Statewide, the 10 cities with the highest median home prices in California during January 2009 were: Santa Barbara, $939,250; Redondo Beach, $672,500; Pleasanton, $655,000; San Clemente, $602,500; San Ramon, $582,000; Yorba Linda, $566,750; San Francisco, $561,000; Huntington Beach, $555,000; Encinitas, $550,000; and Sunnyvale, $530,000.

Have you heard?  Mortgage rates are again dropping to near-record lows – below 5% – in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s decision to buy up Treasury bonds and mortgage securities. Lower rates may help spur home sales, but analysts expect much of the action to come from homeowners who are looking to refinance, but mortgage experts caution that many homeowners are bound to be disappointed.

The problems that created the mortgage meltdown mess mean that tighter rules and regulations have been put in place for home buyers and those seeking to refinance, and tight lending standards make it much harder for all but the most creditworthy borrowers to qualify.

Here I have added some quotes for you…

“A lot of people could not requalify for the loan they have now,” said Alex Stenback with Residential Mortgage Group in Minnetonka. “There are tougher credit standards in place and you have to have a certain amount of equity in the property in addition to meeting the now-tighter debt-to-income ratio requirements.”

Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associates, a publisher of mortgage information, said “good interest rates were available to all kinds of borrowers in all kinds of credit circumstances when the market was running flat out five years ago. That’s not the case today.”

“You must be a much better borrower than you had to be before,” he said. “For some borrowers, you might have to get used to hearing ‘no.’”

Maybe I should educate you a bit about the what the BIG GUYS are doing.

By snapping up Treasury securities, the Fed boosts their prices, and that drives down the yield, or interest rate. The 10-year Treasury bond dropped by the biggest one-day amount since 1981 this past Wednesday and rebounded slightly on Thursday.

Analysts expected mortgage rates to follow suit, and they did come down on both Wednesday and Thursday.

The national average rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.94%, down nearly a quarter of a percentage point from a day earlier, according to HSH Associates.
Stenback said that rates on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage were 4.5% to 4.625% for a best-case scenario borrower.

Will they stay that low? Probably not.

“When we see these really dramatic drops, there’s a little bit of a snap-back effect,” said Stenback. “But they probably won’t go back up to where they were before.”

Paul Schuster, vice president of Marketplace Home Mortgage and head of the Minnesota Mortgage Association, called the downward trend positive but said it won’t solve the housing problem alone. “It’s a key to affordability, and low rates are critical to helping the housing market recover, and it was a commitment by the Federal Reserve to support that in a big way.”

Home buyers and owners who want to refinance should be prepared for a longer process, Schuster said, and for different rates or costs, depending on their credit scores and loan-to-value ratios. “Now, there might three or four different levels for transactions that previously would have been priced equally,” he said.

Stenback said he expected a “huge” number of people to try to refinance but urged patience as the underwriters, closers and others scramble to keep up with demand.

Seems like we never get exactly what we expect!!!!!   Now we have to wait OUR turn.    PPFFFFT!   I am an “I want it now person” too often…lol.   This should not stop you from starting the application process and getting prepared!