Michael Roberts' Blog -San Jose Homes, Real Estate and Houses for Sale

Interesting statistics  published through RISMEDIA, May 25, 2009

I may be tapped into our local market here in Los Gatos and San Jose… it looks like more and more people across the country are feeling the same way as we do here in Santa Clara County.

Fewer homeowners may be starting complete kitchen remodels, but they’re still replacing countertops and re-facing cabinets. They’re also investing in improvements to make their homes more energy-efficient, according to a recent home remodeling and repair report by ServiceMagic.com. Others are splurging on hot tubs and home theaters after realizing that they may be in their homes for some years to come-and want to make them as comfortable as possible.

“People are not going bigger and better, but improving what they have more cost effectively,” said Craig Smith, CEO of ServiceMagic, a website that connects homeowners to prescreened contractors. For instance, instead of buying new furniture, they’re repairing what they have. Or they’re deep cleaning the carpet in lieu of replacing it.

All for good reason: Money is tight, lending standards strict and in a sluggish housing market you might not recoup as much of your remodeling investment at resale.

Home improvement spending is expected to decline 12% in 2009, according to Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Lower financing costs may be starting to stabilize the downturn in existing home sales, but “they have not been enough to offset rising unemployment and falling consumer confidence and encourage homeowners to undertake major home improvement projects,” said Kermit Baker, director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center.

It’s much different than the days when home-equity lending was plentiful. Before doing anything, homeowners are carefully considering how they should spend their money.  If you consult with your favorite Real Estate pro before you start your project there is a better chance it will be a recoverable investment.   Besides,  you get to enjoy what you improve!

What would you estimate new Granite countertops (cost about $4000) will give you in return in say 3 years if you were to sell?

Are you a homeowner planning on moving up to a bigger or more expensive home? Here’s a guide for planning the transition in today’s foreclosure heavy market.

Figure out how much your current home is likely to sell for.
Have your real estate professional conduct a comparative market analysis. “Be realistic about pricing the home so it moves quickly,” adds Sandy Guralnik, a broker with Coldwell Banker United in Charlotte, N.C. This will help you avoid a long gap between when you buy your new home and sell your old one.

Consider the market.
If you have only been in the home two or three years and made little or no down payment, you probably do not have have enough equity to sell at a profit in today’s soft market. You might even owe more on the mortgage than the home is worth.  This is far to common in the current foreclosure heavy market.  On the other hand, if your home has appreciated well, it might be easier to move up to a bigger and better home than ever before!  Especially in Cambrian Park, Los Gatos, and Saratoga.  Cupertino has consistantly bucked the market recently.

Consider your finances.
Your overall debt picture is important if you plan to move into a larger, more expensive home. In addition to a higher mortgage, you’ll likely have higher utility, insurance and property taxes as well. If you owe money on a home equity loan, you’ll have to pay that back when you sell the home, which will eat into your profit.

Get preapproved by a reputable lender.
The lender will tell you how much money they’re willing to lend you, which will tell you how much house you can afford. Then, figure out how much you’re comfortable spending. The two numbers are not necessarily the same.  Your comfort zone should be your guide here.

Determine your long-term housing needs.
Will you be starting or expanding your family in a few years? Will the larger home be as teen-friendly as it is toddler-friendly? Is there a place for a home office if one of you eventually works from home?  With the many economy issues this should play a large part in your decision process.   Not to speak of the inventory that is available today.

Be realistic.
Most people will not be able to move up from a starter home into their dream home. It’s a long-term process that occurs over several moves, says Debbie Wong, a certified residential specialist with Prudential California Realty in San Mateo, Calif. Plus, it’s harder to qualify for a loan if the jump in monthly payments is too big, she says. Not to speak of all the hoops many lenders are expecting you to jump through now.

Preview properties in your target price range and location.
Most importantly does that “Super Foreclosure Deal” really translate into a home. Look to see whether the homes match your trade-up goals.

Get your home on the market.
Moving up will go more smoothly if you are able to sell your home before trying to buy another. For one thing, many Sellers are leery of contracts in which the sale is contingent on the Buyer selling their current home. Foreclosures are held by Banks that are not willing to diminish there pool of potential buyers.  If they accept your offer they will be required to place the home on a pending status and other buyers will be considering it. Finances also are an issue.   Bridge loans to carry you from your current home to the next are almost impossible to get today.

Determine the best time for your move.
If you want to move in the summertime, start your other preparations early enough to meet that goal.

Wow,  it’s 98 degrees out!  The number of sales for the month of April for Santa Clara County are also hot and very encouraging.    It is obvious our market is stabilizing,  finally!  Or is it?  Could this just be a spike that will pop this little bubble?

If  I were a gambling man, I would bet that the heat today might keep (some) buyers away.  Nah!  Didn’t apply yesterday.

Yesterday,   Saturday,  there were so many agents and clients showing/viewing property that parking in front of many listings was hard to find.     Several new home listings, a few my clients found worth pursuing, were already looking at multiple offers.

The average days on market for the County was down by almost 30 days.     We were looking at 125+days and now we are seeing 108 days.   The average sales/listing price percentage is up to 96% and has held consistently here for a couple of months now.

I wonder if I should buy that 30,000sq ft home now.  It;s only $64mil.  Maybe after Ice Cream!

Update: June 11, 2009-First-time home buyers who would otherwise qualify for the $8,000 tax credit, but don’t have the money for a down payment or closing fees, may now be able to get a loan to help cover those upfront costs.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announced on May 29 that the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) will allow state housing finance agencies to provide second mortgages “monetizing” the tax credit so that borrowers can use the funds toward their down payments and closing costs for the purchase of homes with FHA-insured mortgage loans.  End Update

New measures for the $8K First Time Buyer Tax Credit have been announced and I am one who believes it may be something that first time buyers, here in high priced Santa Clara County, will find useful.

The measures announced by HUD would allow FHA-approved lenders; federal, state and local government agencies; and FHA-approved non-profit organizations to supply home buyers short-term or “bridge loans” up to the amount of the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit

I am not sure how lenders will implement repayment requirements though.   Stay tuned for that.

Previously, the home buyer would have been unable to access the tax credit until they filed their next annual tax return or an amended 2008 tax return and received the refund from the IRS.

“Secretary Donovan shares our view on the need for a housing and economic recovery,” said Robson(NHBA Chairman). “We appreciate his leadership in moving swiftly to help first-time home buyers to access the tax credit up-front at the time of closing. The timing could not have been better as we are in the midst of the crucial spring home buying season.”

To qualify for the tax credit, first-time home buyers must actually close on their home purchase by Dec. 1, 2009. Buyers can take the credit on their 2008 or 2009 income tax return.

In San Jose and surrounding cities like Cupertino, Los Gatos and Cambrian we have seen several creative financing programs serve buyers.   I hope this is one finance “tweek” that proves out to be successful.   The other programs were “funded” mortgage packages and the demand usually sucked the air out of them pretty quick.

Ok!  I am suffering from too many numbers, quotes and opinions.  Cap Rates, Cap and Trade, Carpet Tiles, Carbon and Tire Piles.   From Obama’s economic plan and Bush’s mistakes to Barney Franks…too much clutter!  Maybe it’s from the Starbucks at 9pm.

Like Obama said yesterday ” The stars have aligned…”  He was referring to the congress and white house being on the same side, I know.  Who cares!   I only care about the residential housing segment!  In my 28 years of working in the residential housing market has made it clear to me..The Stars Have Aligned..NOW!!!!

The market has bounced around, the housing segment has free fallen, like a trolley car going down Lombard street without a break man.  The job losses are about to level off.  The truth is the housing market is preparing to make a surge big time.  The mortgage finance rates are so low they are nearly free considering the 5-7 year equity upside coming.  Especially the fixed rates.  It is bringing tears to my eyes!..or is it the coffee?

I have been writing offer after offer for buyers, lately(today),  and homes are seeing multiple offers like 2003.  It is amazing how many best buys we are finding for everyone… are you one?   The inventory is down from 16 months worth to 4 months worth.   Some communities are at 3 months worth of inventory.  The big question….Where is the bottom?  Ummm…I think it is about to go on sabbatical.

If anyone is waiting…they are going to be like those in 2005 and “wanting”.    Market conditions have never been better.   Find a savvy Realtor, mortgage professional and your calculator and get moving on the Foreclosures and Short Sales available.    Where?  Wherever YOU want to buy a home in Santa Clara County or an investment out of the area.  Your Realtor is licensed to sell in California!  Everywhere in California!

Don’t believe me!   Call your friends…Call your Uncle, the Realtor…Go to open houses this weekend!  Then come back here and tell me what you learned!

While searching for a particular single family home for a recent buyer client, looking for REO’s (bank owned properties) (foreclosure to be specific), I kept getting the same results….good relative data that was current and up to date in the right communities.   In the meantime,  my new client forwarded a handful of MLS numbers and excitedly asked  “Can we see these foreclosure homes this afternoon?”   Funny thing was… They were no longer available.  One had a  pending sold status another was no longer on the market and the last one…I could not even find.

Frustrated, I asked my client where did you find these listings?   The answer was disappointing…another website.  I won’t share which one as I have found the data there to be poorly arranged and not current by any standards.   Figures!   I asked “Why would you go to another website to find a home when I have been sending you the most recent daily updates?”   I got another “figures” answer. …”I saw it on the web and they advertised on the TV news”.    Oh Gosh!  Not the web monkeys!

Many new websites and data exchanges have been popping up lately.  The problem with these other sites is that their data is third party.   They are built by web masters to capture leads that are then sold to the uninformed Real Estate agent looking for new business. These sites load from the same place your search is sourced from.  The one you set it up with your Realtor whom you probaly hired to find you the best home at the best price available.

Unfortunately, the web architecture does not have a true update process programmed in.  This allows for information to become old and irrelevant.    Much of the information is derived from Title records too.  If someone refinances their mortgage it will report it as a sale when it is “far from that”.   If you thought a home sold for $250,000 which was actullay in a million dollar neighborhood…good chance it did not REALLY sell.    Then there is the home that is $300,000 under market price….it actually sold 2 years ago!

In short,  all the homes available for sale were right here at their finger tips.   The data derived from this search tool is current, changes are updated by the minute and there is the capability to have any new results, based on the home search criteria, emailed directly to them.

The map search is the Best home search tool for many buyers.  This allows you to draw a line around a neighborhood and see only those results without being overwhelmed with a zip code search that will, invariably, return homes not anywhere near your desired neighborhood.   San Jose is rich in investors and fast, filtered results are paramount in being the first to find the best buys.

I hope I remember, the next time a meet a new client,  to share with them the dynamic web source for home buyers is right here.   Santa Clara County, Los Gatos, Cambrian, Blossom Valley, East Hills, Silver Creek, Milpitas, Fremont and Campbell etc… are included.   Cities in Merced, Stanislaus, Alameda and San Joaquin County are participating in the results found in this too.

Maybe I should post a bulletin on TV!

This is right from the Bank of America Press Kit!!!! 

Bank of America’s Nationwide Homeownership

Retention Program for Countrywide Customers

Fact Sheet

§         Countrywide and state Attorneys General has cooperated in the development of a comprehensive home retention program to systematically modify troubled mortgages with aggressive solutions, including interest rate and principal reductions.

§         It is anticipated that the loan modification program in this agreement will result in an estimated $8.4 billion in permanent payment relief to an estimated 400,000 Countrywide borrowers nationwide.

§         In participating states, the agreement provides up to $150 million in payments to borrowers who defaulted early in their loan terms, while committing to a “soft landing” program to help borrowers who are unable to retain their homes with relocation costs.

§         Countrywide will begin its proactive outreach to eligible borrowers on December 1, 2008.

Formalization of Existing Commitments

§         Countrywide no longer offers “subprime,” “high cost” or “negative amortization” mortgages and has significantly curtailed no- and low-documentations loans.

§         Broker compensation will be limited to 4% of the amount borrowed.

§         Countrywide will retain, for at least one year following the acquisition of BAC, a minimum of 3,900 personnel to assist with loan modifications and other foreclosure avoidance measures.

§         We will continue to proactively seek delinquent borrowers and offer streamlined loan modifications and report the progress of this agreement on a regular basis.

Home Retention Programs

§         Beginning December 1, 2008, Countrywide will proactively contact subprime and Pay Option ARM borrowers whose loans are scheduled for an interest rate change. We will invite them to contact us if they believe they will not be able to afford the new payments.

§         Countrywide will not advance foreclosures for eligible borrowers for the time necessary to determine the borrowers’ interest in staying in the home and their ability to afford the new terms as well as the investor’s willingness to accept a loan modification.

§         Countrywide will waive late/delinquency fees for missed payments when modifying loans and will not charge modification fees to borrowers in the participating states.

§         When possible, Countrywide will waive prepayment penalties in connection with any workout or refinance, whether or not the new loan is originated with Countrywide.

Eligibility

Borrowers eligible for loan modifications under this program must have received a qualifying subprime mortgage or a Pay Option adjustable rate mortgage prior to December 31, 2007, and the property must be a 1-4 unit owner-occupied residential property. In addition, certain other requirements are set out in the program:

• The borrower is 60 days or more delinquent and the current loan-to-value ratio is 75% or higher;
• The borrower is current today but becomes 60 days or more delinquent at any time prior to June 30, 2012, and the loan-to-value ratio at the time of the modification is 75% or higher;
• The borrower has a subprime hybrid ARM and the borrower is current but reasonably likely to become 60 days or more delinquent as a consequence of a rate reset, and the loan-to-value ratio at the time of the modification is 75% or higher;
• The borrower has a Pay Option ARM and the borrower is current but reasonably likely to become 60 days or more delinquent as a consequence of a rate reset or payment recast based on negative amortization, and the loan-to-value ratio at the time of the modification is 75% or higher.

In addition, customers may be eligible for the early payment default benefit of this program if: (1) the customer has a Countrywide-originated first lien loan; (2) the loan was on or prior to December 31, 2007; (3) the customer’s primary residence is the property that secures the loan; (4) the customer has made three or fewer payments over the life of the loan (the borrower’s state may expand eligibility); and (5) the customer has either lost his home to foreclosure or is at least 120 days in arrears on mortgage payments.

Loan Modification Program Details

Countrywide will first offer eligible borrowers an FHA refinance under the HOPE for Homeowners Program. If not eligible for that program, Countrywide will offer these specific programs based on product type. 

Subprime 2-, 3- 5-, 7- and 10-Year Hybrid ARM borrowers will receive an unsolicited extension/restoration of the introductory rate for five years and an invitation to contact Countrywide for additional relief if affordability concerns persist. Borrowers who cannot afford the introductory rate will be considered on a streamlined basis for a five-year interest rate reduction to as low as 3.5% (based on the affordability equation) and a conversion to a fixed-rate mortgage at the end of five years.

Pay Option ARM borrowers accepting a streamlined loan modification option will have the negative amortization feature eliminated from their loan. The mortgage interest rate will be reduced to as low as 2.5%, and the loan will be converted into either a fixed-rate mortgage or a ten-year interest-only loan. For single property owners who currently have no equity in their homes, Countrywide will write-down the principal balance to as low as 95% of the current value of the property to restore an equity position.

The Obama housing plan attacks two problems that are creating a vicious cycle in the nation’s housing market.

I am just not sure what it really does for Buyers.   We need Buyers to Buy the homes already on the Market.

Anyway…

First, Obama’s plan offers $200 billion to provide refinancing for some homeowners who owe more than their homes are now worth-shorthanded as being “underwater” on their mortgages. To qualify, these homeowners-5 million of them by administration estimates-must have their mortgages in the hands of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, the mortgage finance giants that the government seized last September.

“We have been advocating for one unified approach to help modify or refinance delinquent and underwater loans and thus we think this program will undoubtedly help servicers keep more at-risk borrowers in their homes, which is a crucial step to helping stabilize the mortgage and housing markets,” stated John A. Courson, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Many of these homeowners would like to take advantage of today’s historically low interest rates and refinance but can’t, since the law prohibits refinancing if the current mortgages reflects less than 80% of the homes’ values. These homeowners now can seek to refinance if their mortgages are up to 5% higher than the present-day values of their homes. That helps some, but it won’t reach lots of homeowners in California, Florida and elsewhere whose homes are now worth substantially less than their mortgages.

Because most mortgages are bundled into securities and sold into a secondary market, it’s often difficult for homeowners to find out whether Fannie or Freddie owns their loans or whether they’ve been pooled with other loans and sold by an investment bank to other investors.

Second, Obama’s plan attacks the problem of affordability. The administration provides another $75 billion in incentives to help prevent foreclosures in cases in which the homeowners, up to 4 million of them, are about to lose their homes. The money comes from the $700 billion bailout fund approved last October.

Under this complex portion of the plan, the president offers a stream of financial incentives to mortgage servicers, who are essentially bill collectors for private investors who own pools of U.S. mortgages. Some incentives stay with the servicers while others flow through to investors.

In exchange for the incentives, a servicer would modify a mortgage so that no more than 38% of a homeowner’s monthly after-tax income was taken by the monthly mortgage payment. The government then would step in and share the cost of reworking that mortgage so that no more than 31% of the borrower’s monthly income was tied up in the payment.

This could result in some mortgages carrying interest rates as low as 2% for five years. Critics think that this mortgage subsidy interferes with the natural process of letting the marketplace find the floor on home prices.

Let’s just h.o.p.e THIS plan works~

Have you heard?  Mortgage rates are again dropping to near-record lows – below 5% – in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s decision to buy up Treasury bonds and mortgage securities. Lower rates may help spur home sales, but analysts expect much of the action to come from homeowners who are looking to refinance, but mortgage experts caution that many homeowners are bound to be disappointed.

The problems that created the mortgage meltdown mess mean that tighter rules and regulations have been put in place for home buyers and those seeking to refinance, and tight lending standards make it much harder for all but the most creditworthy borrowers to qualify.

Here I have added some quotes for you…

“A lot of people could not requalify for the loan they have now,” said Alex Stenback with Residential Mortgage Group in Minnetonka. “There are tougher credit standards in place and you have to have a certain amount of equity in the property in addition to meeting the now-tighter debt-to-income ratio requirements.”

Keith Gumbinger of HSH Associates, a publisher of mortgage information, said “good interest rates were available to all kinds of borrowers in all kinds of credit circumstances when the market was running flat out five years ago. That’s not the case today.”

“You must be a much better borrower than you had to be before,” he said. “For some borrowers, you might have to get used to hearing ‘no.’”

Maybe I should educate you a bit about the what the BIG GUYS are doing.

By snapping up Treasury securities, the Fed boosts their prices, and that drives down the yield, or interest rate. The 10-year Treasury bond dropped by the biggest one-day amount since 1981 this past Wednesday and rebounded slightly on Thursday.

Analysts expected mortgage rates to follow suit, and they did come down on both Wednesday and Thursday.

The national average rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.94%, down nearly a quarter of a percentage point from a day earlier, according to HSH Associates.
Stenback said that rates on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage were 4.5% to 4.625% for a best-case scenario borrower.

Will they stay that low? Probably not.

“When we see these really dramatic drops, there’s a little bit of a snap-back effect,” said Stenback. “But they probably won’t go back up to where they were before.”

Paul Schuster, vice president of Marketplace Home Mortgage and head of the Minnesota Mortgage Association, called the downward trend positive but said it won’t solve the housing problem alone. “It’s a key to affordability, and low rates are critical to helping the housing market recover, and it was a commitment by the Federal Reserve to support that in a big way.”

Home buyers and owners who want to refinance should be prepared for a longer process, Schuster said, and for different rates or costs, depending on their credit scores and loan-to-value ratios. “Now, there might three or four different levels for transactions that previously would have been priced equally,” he said.

Stenback said he expected a “huge” number of people to try to refinance but urged patience as the underwriters, closers and others scramble to keep up with demand.

Seems like we never get exactly what we expect!!!!!   Now we have to wait OUR turn.    PPFFFFT!   I am an “I want it now person” too often…lol.   This should not stop you from starting the application process and getting prepared!

Just thought I would share a link where San Jose, CA.  and Austin, TX. appear to be tied as great investment locations.   San Jose made it because the prices have fallen by a median of $250K last year.

 BUY NOW…never was so true.

 http://www.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2009/01/26/daily16.html?ana=from_rss